Nearly 2-year streak broken: Seattle no longer leads nation in home price increases

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After 21 months of leading the Case-Shiller’s home price index, the latest report shows that Las Vegas has overtaken Seattle as the nation’s hottest housing market. It reflects the mood Seattle has been seeing so far, with many realtors and reports expressing a bit of a slowdown in the market.

Case Shiller’s report has a bit of a lag, this month’s report uses June numbers, so time will tell if Seattle’s summer season brought a little more frenzy to the market. But even the most recent Northwest Multiple Listing Service report (on July’s figures) has seen a steadily improving supply, and slight drop in sales.

“In Seattle and King County supply is at the highest level since first quarter 2015, which has me thinking about the longevity of seller luxuries like offer review dates, pre-inspections, and escalation clauses,” Robert Wasser, owner of Prospera Real Estate and an officer of the Northwest MLS board of directors, said in the report.

“People are taking notice of the evolving real estate landscape ̶ even my mom tells me she’s noticing more for sale signs!”

However, King County is still well below a balanced market of supply of four to five months; right now King County is boasting about 1.5 months. And in Case-Shiller’s latest report the metro area registered a 12.8 percent increase in single-family home prices in June compared to a year earlier.

But either way, the latter number dropped from 13.6 percent, and the city is now enjoying its time as number two on the hottest cities nationally according to Case-Shiller.

~Zosha Millman, Seattle PI

In Seattle real estate market, inventory is finally up

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According to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS) Seattle ended June with more than a month of inventory for the first time since September 2016.

In the Seattle city limits in June 2018, NWMLS saw 1,246 active listings, a 75.5 percent increase from the year before. Seattle ended last month with 1.2 months of inventory—a figure based on number of homes for sale and typical sales time—which is nearly double what the market had the previous year.

While this didn’t translate to a decrease in housing prices, they did rise less than last month or last year. Median closing prices rose 8 percent compared to June of last year—but at that time, home values had risen 17 percent. So although the median closing price for last month in Seattle was a whopping $740,000, or $812,500 for a single-family home, it rose far less quickly than this time last year.

County-wide, the inventory picture also improved, although home prices continue to rise; King County ended the month with 1.3 months of inventory compared to .84 last year. And while home prices are rising less quickly than this time last year, too, it’s not by as much. County-wide, home prices rose 10.2 percent over last year—compared to 15.7 percent over the previous year.

Even if home values are rising less quickly, they’re still already high—and still, according to the Puget Sound Regional Council, going up by about $5 every hour of every day. With renters already cost-burdened at a higher rate than homeowners, there seem to be fewer options for entering into homeownership. For people already priced out, there’s not a lot of good news here.

But it’s decent news for current househunters worried about getting priced out before they can get an offer accepted, agents short on listings, or current homeowners sitting on their properties because they’re worried about their next steps.

Meanwhile, though, there’s not much relief in sight for would-be homebuyers in Tacoma. As the City of Destiny’s rent rises faster than Seattle, closing prices have jumped more than 13 percent in Pierce County. Inventory is down and median sale prices are up across the city proper, with the biggest jump in home price, 34.6 percent, in central Tacoma.

~Sarah Anne Lloyd, Curbed Seattle

Seattle home inventory is even lower than this time last year

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Heading into 2017, the number of homes on the market in the Seattle metropolitan area had dropped 10 percent from the previous year. Now, at that same time in 2018, inventory is even lower, dropping an additional 19 percent from this time last year, according to a report by real estate group Zillow.

In the metropolitan area, which includes Pierce and Snohomish counties, that inventory drop drove bidding wars in 2017; per Zillow, 52.4 percent of home sales ended up above asking. The report speculates that with an even bigger inventory crunch, that’s not expected to stop anytime soon.

Initial listing prices have grown, too—not a huge surprise to anyone who’s been watching home values for the past several years. Specifically, Seattle-area homes saw a year-over-year increase of 13 percent, with a median home value of $472,900 for the whole metro. (In the Seattle city limits, that number is, of course, much bigger; Zillow estimates $727,400.)

As prices have grown, sales times have shrunk to less than half what they were in 2010. Average days on the market in the metro was 51 days in 2017, per Zillow, compared to 58 in 2016 or 114 in 2010.

The bottom line: Zillow’s numbers point an exaggerated version of the same this year, with a cutthroat market, rising sales costs, and not enough homes to go around.

Sarah Anne Lloyd, Curbed Seattle