Dip in Seattle home prices leads nationwide slowdown


07292019_mad_105227-768x540

For months, Seattle-area home prices have been teetering between growth and decline.

They just dropped over the edge.

The cost of a single-family home in May dipped 1.2% from 12 months earlier, the first negative change in a major U.S. city in a number of years, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data.

“Whether negative YOY (year-over-year) rates of change spread to other cities remains to be seen,” said Philip Murphy, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a statement. “For now, there is still substantial diversity in local trends.”

Nationwide, home prices have been slowing their gains for the past year — even in the Southwest, where the market is growing fastest. Las Vegas, which overtook Seattle as the nation’s hottest housing market last June, saw gains of 6.4%, still a slight decline over last year.

But an overall fall in Seattle-area prices masks the trend that north and south of Seattle, the market is only getting hotter. In Tacoma and Pierce County, median house prices rose 7.3% in June from 12 months earlier, according to data from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. (The Case-Shiller index lags by one month and is a composite of prices in King, Pierce and Snohomish counties.) And prices in Kitsap and Skagit County both posted double-digit price increases.

Some of that variation is because prices for less expensive homes, which tend to be outside of Seattle, are still rising.

The Case-Shiller index divides homes into three even tiers: homes that cost more than $625,000, those that cost less than $400,000 and those in between. Of the three, in the Seattle metro area only homes in the least expensive tier posted price increases in May, a 2.74% jump since last year.

Northerly Skagit County, where median home prices hover in the low tier at $380,000, saw an 11.8% increase in prices from June 2018, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service data. Realtor Duane Gish, who’s been selling homes in Skagit County for 19 years, said that five years ago the homes he sold were in the $300-400,000 range. Now, they’re closer to $500,000.

While the Northwest Multiple Listing Service data charts growth in some ritzy suburbs like Bellevue and Mercer Island, that’s not the case for the city itself. Prices in the middle tier of real estate are stagnant, the Case-Shiller data shows, while the top tier has been losing value since early this year.

Those top two tiers include almost all the single-family real estate in Seattle proper, where the median home price is $714,600, according to Zillow.

Kelly Meister, a broker at Compass in Seattle, said buyers “don’t have the sense of urgency they did last year,” when prices for top-tier real estate were growing in the double digits.

Right now, she said, “the Seattle market is like a microwave: Super hot in some spots and cold in others.” Houses that would have been “a major grab” last year in neighborhoods like the Central District and Columbia City aren’t getting as much attention in a slower market.

Meanwhile, in tony neighborhoods like Mount Baker, Magnolia and Laurelhurst, there’s still a great deal of demand for “homes that check all the boxes,” said Barbara Shikiar, a Windermere broker working primarily in Northeast Seattle.

“But homes that are more idiosyncratic, in this type of market,” she said, “those tend to linger.”

Nationwide, the Case-Shiller index showed gains of 3.4% over the past 12 months. Growth is slowing because “buyers are no longer willing to pay any price,” Zillow economist Matthew Speakman said in a statement.

Buyers, he said, “took a breather … The fact that buyers — and prices — slowed their roll right through the middle of home-buying season indicates just how few homes are on the market.” And, he said, high land and labor costs mean builders aren’t putting up inexpensive homes fast enough to woo first-time buyers.

Even though home prices in Seattle are dropping, they remain high. A typical home in Las Vegas, the nation’s hottest market, might sell for $274,000, according to Zillow’s Home Value Index, less than half the median Seattle value.

~Katherine Kashimova Long, Seattle Times

2019 Homebuyer Forecast ~ Update

e2473723-f702-4d53-9f18-3c4951e876d5-large16x9_1e839d225df94d518a931de7b7a25874large16x9_181205_ap_home_prices_for_sale_mortgage_986

On Tuesday, Realtor.com issued a revised forecast projecting a more robust market than originally predicted through the remainder of the year.

As mortgage rates fall and more homes hit the market, realtor.com has updated its homebuying forecast for the end of 2019. While the original forecast predicted mortgage rates to reach 5.5 percent by the end of the year, the adjusted forecast indicates rates will likely peak at 4.5 percent. The number of home sales, meanwhile, will experience a much smaller drop than initially forecasted. Realtor.com expects them to drop by only 0.3 percent instead of 2 percent.

“The 2019 housing market is different than what we predicted in fall 2018, primarily due to an unexpected drop in mortgage rates in January 2019,” said realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale in a prepared statement.

Courtesy of Realtor.com

Home prices are the only metric not predicted to experience a shift toward affordability. Realtor.com predicts prices will grow by 2.9 percent instead of the original 2.2 percent. But overall, the anticipated slowdown in sales is not likely to take place. With lower mortgage rates, more homes are expected to trade hands than originally predicted.

“We believe 2019 will be characterized by lower, but still increasing mortgage rates that will buoy home prices and sales by boosting buyers’ purchasing power beyond what we initially projected,” Hale said. “This will create a slightly hotter, but still cooling housing market relative to the initial forecast five months ago.”

Veronika  Bondarenko,  Inman

Is spring going to be a Goldilocks housing season for everybody?

should-you-rent-or-buy

Have we arrived at one of those rare Goldilocks moments in real estate, where the market works well for sellers and buyers, strongly favoring neither?

Maybe. Based on the latest national consumer-sentiment survey by mortgage investor Fannie Mae, American consumers appear to think so. They’re more positive about the overall direction of the housing market than they’ve been in nearly a year. Growing numbers think it’s a good time to sell and a good time to buy. They expect their own personal financial situations will improve this year, and they believe that interest rates for home loans will continue to remain relatively affordable.

Housing and mortgage economists tend to agree. As Michael Fratantoni, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association, told me: Six months ago, “I was guardedly optimistic. Now I’m just plain optimistic.” Mark Fleming, chief economist of First American Title Insurance, says: “So far in 2019, we’ve seen mortgage rates decline and wages rise — both trends work to boost home-buying power and fuel greater market potential for home sales, setting the stage for a stronger than expected” season.

Yet some economists warn that things are not necessarily as rosy as Fannie’s consumer survey would suggest. They point to troubling signs: Total home sales on a national basis continue to decline. That pattern historically has been a leading indicator that prices could actually fall during the year ahead, ending years of nonstop appreciation. Plus, houses are taking longer to sell — many owners are having to cut their asking prices. The days of widespread bidding wars are over.

So what’s really going on, and how do you relate it to your own situation, either as a potential buyer or seller? Some hard facts:

●Prices are still rising, but at a slower rate than in recent years past. The median home listing price hit $300,000 last month for the first time ever, a 7 percent jump over the previous year, according to Realtor.com. Fratantoni predicts price increases will moderate to an average of just 4 percent this year, 3 percent next year and 2.5 percent in 2021.

●A notable percentage of sellers’ asking prices are being reduced.

●Interest rates have been a great stimulus and are key to a strong spring. Lower rates are good for buyers, good for sellers. Last fall, average rates for a fixed-rate 30-year mortgage hovered near 5 percent, according to data from investor Freddie Mac. In the first week of April they averaged 4.08 percent. Homeowners and would-be buyers have responded enthusiastically to the lower rates, sending applications soaring by 18.6 percent during the week ending March 29 compared with the week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

●Inventories of available homes for sale continue to rise — meaning more choices for shoppers, according to National Association of Realtors researcher Michael Hyman. Listings nationwide were up by 3.2 percent year-over-year in February. That’s generally a good sign for buyers because it helps keep price pressures down. But homes for sale in the primary entry segment for first-time home buyers — houses priced under $200,000 — dropped by 9 percent year-over-year, according to Realtor.com, while they grew by 11 percent in the upper price brackets over $750,000.

All this is well and good, says Issi Romem, chief economist for realty marketing and data site Trulia, but the reality is that the housing market is in cyclical slowdown mode. Inventories of available homes may be increasing, but part of the reason is that houses are staying on the market unsold for longer times in many areas. The price cuts and longer days-on-market times reveal that significant numbers of “sellers are facing greater difficulties in selling.”

Romem and Trulia Senior Economist Cheryl Young issued a report last week that runs counter to the cheery outlook prevailing in the industry. “[It] is possible,” they say, that “by fall or next year prices might modestly decline.”

What that means is that the Goldilocks theory and perceptions of balance between sellers and buyers may not be quite right.

Advantage: buyers.

 

Kenneth R. Harney, The Washington Post

Home Buyers Still Competing for Sparse Inventory in Western Washington, Driving Up Prices – Especially for Sought-After Condominiums

“The Seattle area real estate market hasn’t skipped a beat with pent-up demand from buyers is stronger than ever,” remarked broker John Deely in reacting to the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. The report on January activity shows a slight year-over-year gain in pending sales, a double-digit increase in prices, and continued shortages of inventory.

images-2

“Sellers that have put their properties on the market early this year have less competition and are seeing multiple offers. Open houses are experiencing heavy traffic with hundreds of potential buyers attending,” reported Deely.

Of 23 counties served by Northwest MLS, eight counties, including three in the Puget Sound region (King, Kitsap and Snohomish), reported fewer pending sales than a year ago. In King County, where acute inventory shortages exist in many neighborhoods, pending sales dropped 7.5 percent and closings dropped 18.5 percent.

“The decline in sales last month can’t be blamed on the holidays, weather or football. It’s simply due to the ongoing shortage of housing that continues to plague markets throughout Western Washington,” said OB Jacobi, the president of Windermere Real Estate. The number of total active listings at month end stood at 8,037 homes and condos, down nearly 17.6 percent from a year ago. Measured by months of supply, there was only about 1.5 months overall, well below the 4-to-6 month level many industry experts use as a gauge of a balanced market.

Condo inventory is especially tight in Snohomish County (0.8 months of supply) and King County (0.92 months). System-wide there is under a month’s supply (0.93 months). For the four-county Puget Sound region, there were only 427 active condo listings at month end, down almost 31 percent from a year ago.

Despite the sparse selection, brokers expect inventory to improve.

“I actually believe 2018 will bring us moderately more listings, which should help offset the growing demand that continues to result from the area’s strong economy,” remarked Jacobi.

“The month of March can’t come soon enough for home buyers,” said J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. “In March, the number of new listings will bump up substantially from the low number of new listings typical for winter months. Better selection will start in March as we enter the spring housing season,” Scott predicts.

In the meantime, Scott reported “a multiple-offer everything, virtually sold out market” in all price ranges close to job centers and in the more affordable and mid-price ranges in surrounding counties. “Sellers are receiving premium pricing and home buyers are pouncing on each new listing,” he added.

Prices continue to rise in all but a few counties, even as the volume of closed sales fell about 9.3 percent. For January’s 5,325 closed sales, the median price was $363,500, a jump of about 11 percent from the year-ago figure of $327,500. Twelve counties reported double-digit spikes.

Within the four-county Puget Sound region, King County had the largest year-over-year gain. Prices for homes and condos combined shot up 20.3 percent in that county, rising from $475,000 to $571,250. Pierce County reported a jump of 15 percent, followed by Snohomish County at about 12.2 percent and Kitsap County at nearly 3.5 percent.

The depleted supply of condos meant premium prices. Area-wide the median price for last month’s completed transactions rose nearly 18.6 percent, from $269,900 to $320,000. Snohomish County’s condo prices surged nearly 25.5 percent, followed by King County at nearly 22.6 percent.

Some brokers expect the hefty price gains to ease.

“As interest rates rise, the rate of price increases will slow down,” predicts Northwest MLS director Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Gig Harbor. Despite this expectation, he believes sparse supply and the area’s appeal both nationally and internationally will mean ongoing competition and multiple offer situations.

 

The luxury market is also off to a quick start in 2018. “Close to job centers, the luxury market is gaining positive momentum due to the wealth effect of the stock market, the strength of the U.S. economy, and homebuyers from the Pacific Rim, especially China,” noted Lennox Scott.

Northwest MLS figures show sales of homes selling for $2 million or more are far outpacing year-ago activity. Last month, member-brokers reported selling 55 residences at this price threshold. That’s up 66 percent from the same month a year ago when brokers sold 33 such homes.


~Northwest Multiple Listing Service

Why It’s Now An Empty Nesters’ Housing Market

housing-market

There’s a mismatch in the housing market. Demand is rising, yet homebuilders don’t have the capacity to create the supply.  They haven’t banked as much land, they haven’t filed the permits and they’ve become increasingly short of labor—one possible byproduct of the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigrants.

In fact, the nation is probably short about 700,000 homes on an annual basis. That explains why new home sales have been somewhat disappointing.

It also explains why sellers in many markets are now in prime position. According to Realtor.com, in December and January the supply of existing homes was 3.6 months, something that hadn’t happened since January 2005. In Seattle, for instance, the average time a house stays on the market is 36 days, compared with the national average of 90 days. In Dallas-Ft. Worth, it’s 42 days, according to Realtor.com.

Combine that with the prospect of higher-priced mortgages thanks to the Federal Reserve’s decision to begin lifting interest rates and it makes buyers a little more motivated. “We’ve seen home sales surge because buyers are beginning to realize there is this expectation that mortgage rates will rebound: you might as well get in now,” says Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at The Economic Outlook Group. He says prices are rising at twice the rate of inflation and more than two times the rate of average hourly pay. That’s bad news on the affordability front for first-time buyers who are trying to get onto the first rung of the housing ladder.
Click here for more articles from Time Inc.’s Looking Forward series.

But it’s great news for empty nesters and other homeowners looking to downsize. Even better, there’s less of a supply constraint because developers have targeted the boomer market by building high service, luxury condominiums in major markets. And why not, says Peter Wells, a partner at Real Capital Solutions, which is developing a luxury condo tower in suburban Dallas: “When [boomers] sell their big place, they’re cash rich and it becomes all lifestyle driven.” Spring is a traditional time for buying and selling homes, and this season stands to be a busy one.

~Bill Saporito, Time